Australia’s energy transition blueprint is being recalibrated. And for solar installers, the direction of travel is becoming clearer.
In its latest draft Integrated System Plan (ISP), the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) has sharply reduced its expectations for new wind farms and transmission infrastructure, while lifting forecasts for large-scale solar, batteries and household energy technologies.
The AEMO makes it clear that falling solar and battery costs, combined with mounting delivery challenges for wind and transmission, are reshaping how Australia expects to reach 82 per cent renewable electricity by 2030.
Wind and transmission downgraded
AEMO has cut its forecast for new wind capacity by the end of the decade from 42.6 gigawatt (GW) to 26 GW, reflecting cost blowouts, planning delays and community opposition. Notably, no wind farms have commenced construction in Australia in 2025.
Transmission targets have also been pared back. Where the previous ISP called for around 10,000 kilometres (km) of new high-voltage lines by 2050, the revised figure now sits closer to 6,000 km, with several projects discontinued across the country (particularly in Queensland).
Major projects such as the VNI West in Victoria and HumeLink in New South Wales remain in the plan, but the overall shift signals a more constrained build-out of long-distance infrastructure than previously assumed.
Solar and batteries step
In contrast, AEMO has increased its forecast for utility-scale solar, lifting expected capacity by 2030 from 21 GW to 32 GW.
Battery storage is accelerating even faster. The operator expects a mix of short and medium duration batteries (typically two to eight hours) to deliver 27 GW of dispatchable capacity when combined with existing hydro assets. That figure exceeds typical National Electricity Market (NEM) demand at many points in time.
For installers, this reinforces a trend already visible on the ground: Solar is no longer being deployed alone. Storage at both grid and household scale is becoming core infrastructure.
Households carry more weight
Perhaps the most consequential shift for the rooftop sector is AEMO’s growing reliance on distributed energy resources (DER).
By 2050, AEMO forecasts:
- 87 GW of rooftop solar
- 27 GW of household batteries
Four in five vehicles electric
The AEMO is explicit that coordinated household systems (including solar, batteries, EVs and smart controls) will be critical to system reliability. When aggregated and orchestrated, AEMO estimates household energy could avoid up to $7.2 billion in additional grid-scale storage investment through to 2050.
For installers, this points to rising importance of:
- Battery-ready solar designs
- Smart inverters and controls
- VPP compatibility and commissioning quality
- Ongoing service, optimisation and upgrades
The transition is increasingly about how systems perform together, not just how many panels are installed.
Gas remains the safety net
Despite the rapid rise of renewables, AEMO continues to see a long-term role for gas – not as baseload, but as a flexible back-up during extended periods of low wind and solar output.
The ISP forecasts a need for 14 GW of gas-fired capacity by mid-century, supported by new import terminals, storage and pipeline upgrades. Gas is also expected to provide system strength and security services that inverter-based resources still struggle to deliver at scale.
What this means for installers
For Australia’s solar and storage workforce, the ISP reinforces several realities already playing out in the market:
- Solar-plus-storage is now the default growth pathway
- System design, efficiency and controllability matter more than raw capacity
- Households are becoming active grid participants, not passive consumers
- Installers will increasingly sit at the intersection of hardware, software and grid integration
As coal exits, with two-thirds of the fleet expected to close by 2035, the burden of flexibility shifts toward batteries, smart inverters and coordinated distributed energy resources.
As Daniel Westerman, Chief Executive Officer and Managing Director at AEMO notes, delays in delivering infrastructure risk higher costs and reliability challenges. The revised ISP reflects a system actively adapting to market forces, not projections.
In 2025, Chris Bowen, Climate Change and Energy Minister welcomed the ISP, saying Australia’s pathway of renewables backed by storage and gas “is the only plan backed by experts.”
For installers, the takeaway is practical rather than political: The future grid is solar-led, battery-heavy and increasingly built one household at a time.