Australia’s first National Climate Risk Assessment (NCRA) has laid bare the country’s growing exposure to cascading, compounding and concurrent climate threats.
The landmark report, released this week alongside a National Adaptation Plan, draws on modelling and expert analysis from the Bureau of Meteorology, CSIRO, Geoscience Australia and the ABS, and identifies 11 nationally significant climate risks requiring immediate coordinated action.
The Assessment confirms Australia is already experiencing more frequent and severe climate hazards – including floods, cyclones, heatwaves, droughts and bushfires – and warns of sharply escalating impacts without stronger adaptation.
It evaluates risks across 11 regions and 10 climate hazard categories, and considers three global warming scenarios: 1.5°C, 2.0°C and 3.0°C.
With global warming already at 1.2°C and Australia tracking closer to 1.5°C, the 3.0°C scenario represents a plausible end-of-century trajectory under current global policy settings.
Key findings include:
- Heat-related mortality could rise by over 400 per cent in Sydney and Darwin under 3.0°C warming.
- Coastal flooding and erosion could put more than 3 million Australians at high or very high risk by 2090.
- Concurrent disasters will place increasing pressure on emergency response systems, particularly in northern and outer urban areas.
- Critical infrastructure including energy, water and communications networks will face greater disruption from cascading climate hazards.
- Water availability, food security, biodiversity, and public health will all be affected, with significant economic and social consequences.
The accompanying National Adaptation Plan sets out the Australian Government’s framework for responding to these risks.
It identifies seven priority systems – including infrastructure, health, primary industries, natural ecosystems and supply chains – and outlines principles to guide federal intervention.
The government says it has so far committed $3.6 billion directly to adaptation and resilience programs since 2022, with a further $9 billion in broader funding with climate co-benefits.
Under the Plan, future adaptation will focus on integrating climate resilience into national infrastructure planning, improving health system preparedness, safeguarding biodiversity, and supporting vulnerable communities.
The government also pledged to work with states, territories and local councils through the Energy and Climate Change Ministerial Council and other mechanisms to align efforts across jurisdictions.
The Assessment draws on over 2,000 expert participants and incorporates more than 15 technical reports and new datasets. It rates residual risks after current adaptation efforts, revealing where further intervention is required. Residual risks remain highest in systems such as coastal settlements, emergency response concurrency, and natural ecosystems.
Minister for Climate Change and Energy, Chris Bowen, said the findings show “every degree of warming we prevent now will help future generations avoid the worst impacts in years to come.”
Assistant Minister Josh Wilson said: “Acting now will minimise the cost of responding that will fall on individuals, households, businesses, industry, community groups, and governments alike.”
The Australian Conservation Foundation has called for more urgent action, warning that “an appropriate response to this alarm bell would be to rapidly phase out Australia’s coal and gas exports.” ACF is urging the government to commit to an 80 per cent emissions reduction target by 2035.
The Albanese Government confirmed that new 2035 targets will be set following advice from the Climate Change Authority.