Ahead of the COAG meeting in August the government appears to have leaked the official report, which indicates households would save about $150 every year on their power bills under the NEG.
According to ABC News, the report predicted the average household would “save around $550 a year on their retail bill over the 2020s relative to 2017-18.
Of this, says the report, nearly $150 per year is forecast additional savings as a result of the guarantee.
Prices would fall even without the NEG, the report found, because of renewable generation coming into the system over the next three years.
Wholesale electricity prices would halve between now and 2023-24 under the NEG before rising again.
The modelling has been prepared for the Energy Security Board, which reports to the Council of Australian Governments.
The National Energy Guarantee would force electricity retailers to provide reliable supply while also containing carbon emissions.
The report noted that retail prices had more than doubled over the past decade, increasing at a rate well above inflation.
Treasurer Scott Morrison said the NEG was the “only credible plan to reduce electricity prices in Australia”.
The Clean Energy Council are still analysing the contents, and their preliminary take is they are broadly happy with the design.
The CEC say the emissions reduction ambition of the policy is embarrassingly low, and they also believe offsets should be excluded from the scheme.