The International Energy Agency (IEA) has just released its 2024 findings from its flagship World Energy Outlook (WEO) report.
Updated annually to reflect the latest data and geopolitical conditions, the latest edition arrives at a moment defined by profound uncertainty.
Covering the global energy system, the WEO uses multiple scenarios to show how today’s decision-makers, including governments, could reshape global energy security, supply chains and emissions trajectories. Rather than forecasting a single outcome, the report highlights the consequences, trade-offs and contingencies that flow from different policy choices.
The 2024 report places heightened emphasis on critical mineral supply security, reflecting mounting concerns about the materials needed for batteries, solar panels, electric vehicles (EVs) and other clean energy technologies.
Energy security is imperative
According to the IEA, escalating threats and long-term structural hazards have pushed energy to the centre of national and economic security debates. Traditional risks to fuel supply remain, but they now intersect with tightening restrictions on critical mineral exports, intensifying geopolitical rivalries and an electricity system increasingly exposed to cyberattacks, operational failures and extreme weather.
These challenges unfold against a complex backdrop. Global oil markets currently show a substantial supply surplus despite ongoing conflicts, while countries adopt divergent strategies to pursue energy security and affordability. Many fuel-importing economies are accelerating renewables and efficiency as core solutions. Others continue to prioritise reliable access to traditional fuels, reinforcing fractures in the international energy system.
Trade tensions rise, but energy trade grows
Even as geopolitical uncertainty clouds the outlook for global trade, the WEO notes that international energy trade remains indispensable. Vast supplies of oil, solar panels, batteries and liquefied natural gas (LNG) create strong incentives for producers to continue seeking global markets. At the same time, differing national priorities and fragmented policy environments add complexity to future supply-chain dynamics.
Climate momentum slows as risks intensify
The IEA highlights an uncomfortable tension: momentum behind emissions reduction efforts has softened, even as climate risks accelerate.
The year of 2024 was officially the hottest on record, marking the first time global temperatures exceeded 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. While renewables achieved their 23rd consecutive annual deployment record, consumption of oil, gas, coal and nuclear power also reached historic highs.
Multiple futures, one urgent choice
The IEA reinforces that there is no single storyline for the future of global energy. Instead, the WEO provides a suite of exploratory and normative scenarios built on rigorous modelling and the most current policy, market and technology data. These pathways allow governments, investors and industry to understand how choices made today could either deepen or strengthen the global energy system.
To read the full WEO report, click here.
