The latest GenCost report, a collaborative effort between CSIRO and the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO), has reaffirmed that firmed renewables are the most cost-effective solution for modernising Australia’s energy grid.
The report highlights that renewable energy sources, even when accounting for storage, transmission, and firming, remain the most affordable electricity generation option in Australia through to 2050.
Firmed renewables are projected to deliver power at $80-$122/megawatts-hour (MWh) by 2030, significantly undercutting nuclear’s projected costs of $145-$487/MWh.
Large-scale nuclear reactors would not be expected to produce power in Australia before 2040, with small modular reactors – if they were viable – facing costs up to $487/MWh by 2030, excluding a potential 100 per cent “first of a kind” premium.
In contrast, renewable technology costs are continuing to decline despite inflationary pressures. Large-scale battery prices fell by 20 per cent, while utility-scale solar dropped by 8 per cent.
Onshore wind costs have also stabilised after a modest rise.
The report directly addresses claims regarding nuclear reactors’ operational lifespan and capacity factors, rejecting the assertion that these would make nuclear power a cheaper option.
CSIRO’s analysis shows that even with a 60-year operational lifespan – far longer than typical renewable assets – nuclear remains significantly more expensive than renewables, even when considering refurbishment and maintenance costs.
The findings also indicate that increasing nuclear capacity factors to 90 per cent would have a negligible impact on reducing overall costs.
Drawing on international data, GenCost notes that planning, financing, and regulatory approvals for nuclear reactors in democracies like Australia require 17–21 years on average.
This places any potential nuclear power generation well into the 2040s, consistent with global evidence.
Minister for Climate Change and Energy Chris Bowen said nuclear would result in higher costs for consumers and fail to address immediate energy challenges.
“The latest GenCost confirms what our energy experts have been saying for a long time: the most affordable path to deliver reliable energy in future is with new renewable generation and storage, firmed by gas and pumped hydro.” Bowen said.
The draft GenCost report is open for consultation until February 11, 2025, with the final version expected in the second quarter of 2025.
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