Installers and renewable energy professionals can expect a busy second half of 2025, with new incentives set to reshape demand for small-scale systems and household storage.
The Clean Energy Regulator’s (CER) March Quarter 2025 report confirms that Australia’s carbon markets are on a growth trajectory, bolstered by the upcoming expansion of the Small-scale Renewable Energy Scheme (SRES) to include batteries.
From 1 July, the Cheaper Home Batteries Program will provide upfront discounts of around 30 per cent on typical small-scale battery systems via tradable Small-scale Technology Certificates (STCs).
These STCs, pegged to a battery’s usable capacity, will be purchased regularly by the federal government through the Clearing House, ensuring the cost is not passed on to electricity consumers.
This shift is expected to cut battery payback periods from around 12 to 8 years in cities like Sydney – shorter still when state and territory rebates are added.
“When batteries are installed at scale, this will provide energy savings for everyone, not just those who install a battery,” the CER notes, pointing to peak price reductions and enhanced grid stability.
Installers should also prepare for an uptick in rooftop solar demand.
Despite weather-related disruptions earlier in the year, installed PV capacity is forecast to hit between 2.9 and 3.2 GW in 2025. The battery incentive is tipped to boost system sizes, as larger PV arrays paired with storage increase returns. Already, the average residential system size has risen from 9.3 to 9.9 kW compared to Q1 2024.
The CER said that existing SRES safety and compliance obligations, including alignment with state electrical standards, will extend to battery systems, providing consumer confidence.
For the broader industry, the report shows strong momentum in large-scale renewable deployment, with 1.7 GW of new wind and solar capacity already approved and another 1.2 GW in the pipeline.
Renewable penetration in the National Electricity Market reached a record 43 per cent for Q1.
“The CER has so far approved a total capacity of 1.7 gigawatts (GW) of new wind and solar power stations that have reached first generation,” said CER Chair David Parker.
While large-scale generation certificate (LGC) prices have declined – from $33 to around $21 – the CER believes investment drivers have shifted. Programs like the Capacity Investment Scheme are now central to project economics.
The full report is accessible here.