The AEMO (Australian Energy Market Operator) has forecast a stable winter for Australia’s energy system, supported by significant additions to generation and storage capacity, strong power plant availability and healthy fuel reserves.
In its annual winter operational outlook, AEMO assessed expected weather conditions, electricity and gas demand, and potential risks across the country’s energy markets. The outlook points to warmer-than-average winter conditions and a reliable supply outlook across both the National Electricity Market and Western Australia’s Wholesale Electricity Market.
Michael Gatt, Executive General Manager – Operations at AEMO, shared that extensive preparation occurs ahead of each season to ensure the energy system is well positioned to respond to changing conditions.
“The critical work with industry ahead of each season supports our energy systems in continuing to meet consumers’ needs,” Gatt said.
“Our forecasts for the National Electricity Market point to a stable winter outlook, underpinned by new generation and storage capacity, strong plant availability, and healthy fuel reserves.”
More than 3 GW (gigawatts) of new generation and battery storage capacity has been added to the National Electricity Market since last winter. This includes approximately 1.6 GW of grid-scale battery storage, 900 MW (megawatts) of new wind and solar generation, and a 660 MW gas-fired power station.
According to AEMO, the additional capacity will help strengthen system reliability during periods of peak demand while supporting the ongoing transition towards a more renewable generation mix.
Fuel reserves remain strong
AEMO shared that the availability of existing coal and gas-fired generation is expected to remain broadly consistent with last winter, while fuel supplies remain robust.
“Alongside new generation, the availability of existing coal and gas generators is expected to be similar to last winter. Importantly, gas storage facilities in southern Australia are near full, and coal stockpiles remain sufficient for expected generation,” Gatt said.
Planned maintenance and upgrade works across electricity and gas infrastructure will continue throughout the winter period, as part of broader investments aimed at improving reliability and system resilience.
AEMO’s operational teams will continue to monitor conditions around the clock. This means working closely with generators, network operators and market participants to balance supply and demand in real-time.
In Western Australia, AEMO expects a similarly reliable winter outlook, supported by approximately 600 MW of additional battery storage capacity and comparable levels of synchronous generation to last year.
The market operator also noted that coal and gas supplies in Western Australia are expected to remain sufficient throughout winter.
AEMO continues to monitor global energy market conditions, including potential impacts from ongoing conflict in the Middle East. The agency’s observation is that Australia’s energy markets have remained resilient, with industry successfully managing operational challenges associated with higher fuel costs and supply access concerns.
Fore more information, visit the AEMO website.
