The Bureau has released its Australian Energy Technology Assessment (AETA) Report and Model, developed in consultation with WorleyParsons, the Australian Energy Market Operator, the CSIRO, and a stakeholder reference group drawn from industry and research organisations.
The AETA looks at the levelised cost of energy estimates for 40 electricity generation technologies under current policy settings, including the carbon price and the Renewable Energy Target.
“Every government in the country has underestimated the ability of renewable energy to improve in efficiency and come down in price, and this report goes some way towards addressing the balance,” Clean Energy Council Deputy Chief Executive Kane Thornton said.
Key findings from the modelling include:
- The relative rankings for levelised costs of energy change significantly after the year 2030, whereby several clean energy technologies become lower-cost than non-renewables, including carbon capture and storage (CCS)
- After 2040, several renewable technologies such as solar PV, onshore wind, bioenergy, and CCS retrofit technologies become lower-cost than non-renewable fossil fuel technologies without CCS
- Among the non-renewable technologies, combined cycle gas (and in later years combined with CCS) and nuclear offer the lowest levelised cost of energy over most of the projection period and remain cost-competitive with the lower cost renewable technologies out to 2050.
Executive Director and Chief Economist of the Bureau, Professor Quentin Grafton, said that the AETA report shows “Australia will experience an energy transformation over the coming decades that will have a profound impact for electricity networks, how energy is distributed and on Australia’s ability to meet its targeted greenhouse gas emissions reductions.”