The message of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report could not be simpler, said United Nation’s Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon. The threat of climate change is real but there are concrete and affordable ways to deal with it.

The IPCC Synthesis Report

The Synthesis Report was presented to delegates at the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC) conference in Bali in December 2007. The report had over 2,500 scientific expert reviewers, 800 contributing authors and 450 lead authors from over 130 countries.

In a sobering warning to the world, it found that warming of the climate system is unequivocal. Sea levels are projected to rise by 18 - 59 centimetres by the end of the 21st Century. Human induced warming, the report found, would lead to some impacts that are abrupt or irreversible, including the partial loss of ice sheets on ice polar land and increased risk of species extinction.

It also found that to confine the average temperature increase to no more than 2.4°C, would require the concentration of greenhouse gas emissions (CO2-equivalent) to be maintained in the range 445 – 490 parts per million and to peak no later than 2015. This requires a reduction in global greenhouse gas emissions of between 50 - 85 per cent, compared with year 2000 levels.

“Fortunately,” said IPCC Chairman Dr Rajendra Pachauri, “humanity has within its reach a number of solutions.”

On actions needed to reach these targets, the Synthesis Report states “There is high agreement and much evidence that all stabilisation levels assessed can be achieved by deployment of a portfolio of technologies that are either currently available or expected to be commercialised in coming decades, assuming appropriate and effective incentives are in place for their development, acquisition, deployment and diffusion and addressing related barriers.”

It goes on to discuss the importance of energy supply in minimising the risks of climate change.

“All assessed stabilisation scenarios indicate that 60 - 80 per cent of the reductions would come from energy supply and use, and industrial processes, with energy efficiency playing a key role in many scenarios. Including non-CO2 and CO2 land-use and forestry mitigation options provides greater flexibility and cost-effectiveness.”

UNFCC Bali conference

The United Nations climate change summit in Bali saw 144 ministers and government representatives, along with six heads of state, discuss a new international agreement on tackling climate change post-2012, following the expiry of the first phase of the Kyoto Protocol.

The conference was not intended to deliver a completed climate deal but was aimed at setting the wheels in motion to begin negotiations on a new international climate change agreement. The key areas negotiated in Bali included mitigation (including avoided deforestation), adaptation, technology and financing. Representatives also needed to agree on when the talks and negotiations will conclude so that the new climate change deal can be ratified by national governments before the end of 2012.

When introducing the IPCC report in November, Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon said the Bali meeting would be critical. “It is in Bali,” he said, “that governments will have to provide political solutions to what are now well established as scientific fact.

“The breakthrough needed in Bali is an agreement to launch negotiations for a comprehensive climate change deal that all nations can embrace, developed and developing alike. Scientists have now done their work and I call on political leaders to do theirs and agree, not only to launch negotiations, but also to conclude them by 2009.”

And a breakthrough was achieved. At the conclusion of the Bali conference, 187 countries met and agreed to launch negotiations towards a crucial and strengthened international climate change deal.

The decision includes a clear agenda for the key issues to be negotiated up to 2009. These include action for adapting to the negative consequences of climate change, such as droughts and floods; ways to reduce greenhouse gas emissions; ways to widely deploy climate-friendly technologies and financing both adaptation and mitigation measures.

Indonesian Environment Minister and President of the conference, Rachmat Witoelar said “We now have a Bali roadmap, we have an agenda and we have a deadline. But we also have a huge task ahead of us and time to reach agreement is extremely short, so we need to move quickly.”

UNFCCC Executive Secretary, Yvo de Boer said a very ambitious, yet balanced agenda had been set.

“This is a real breakthrough, a real opportunity for the international community to successfully fight climate change. Parties have recognised the urgency of action on climate change and have now provided the political response to what scientists have been telling us is needed.”

While a new global deal is envisioned for 2013, countries also agreed on a number of steps that need to be taken immediately to further implement the existing commitments of Parties to the UNFCCC.

As the most recent nation to ratify the Kyoto protocol, Australia played a key role in the negotiations, with Prime Minister Kevin Rudd, Environment Minister Penny Wong, Minister for the Environment, Heritage and the Arts, Peter Garrett and Minister for Trade Simon Crean attending the conference.

The Federal Government has committed to reducing Australia’s greenhouse gas emissions by 60 per cent on 2000 levels by 2050. Before being elected, the Labor Party commissioned the Garnaut Review, to help set shorter term targets along the way. The Clean Energy Council is working with Ross Garnaut and the Government on this review, which will be completed in mid-2008.

Addressing the Bali meeting, Mr Rudd said the Government’s decisions on short and medium term targets would be informed by the Garnaut Review, science and modelling underway in the Australian Treasury.

These targets, he said, will be “real” and “robust”. However he said that they must be backed by action and translated into reality.

The Clean Energy Council’s CEO, Dominique La Fontaine, and Chair, Richard McIndoe (TRUenergy CEO), were also part of the official Australian delegation.

Ms La Fontaine said “The Council’s presence in Bali strongly reinforces business’ commitment to investing in climate change mitigation technology, but that this can only be achieved through stable legal frameworks.”

As Ms La Fontaine states in her CEO Report, the Australian delegation returned from Bali with a renewed sense of enthusiasm and optimism for the future.

“With a new Federal Government, new clean energy target and the new Bali mandate to work with – our industry is truly on the brink of long-anticipated expansion,” she said.

The path ahead

With the Bali roadmap achieved, the world’s nations are moving closer to a united front against the challenges posed by climate change. Four major UNFCCC meetings to implement the Bali roadmap are foreseen for next year, with the first to be held in March or April.

As Dr Pachauri reiterated after presenting the sober warnings contained within the IPCC Synthesis Report, change is possible.

“I think what we really need is a new ethic by which every human being realises the importance of the challenge we are facing and starts taking action to meet it effectively through lifestyle, through changes in attitude and behaviour.”

Quoting Mahatma Ghandi he said, “Be the change you want to see in the world.”