The most recent CEDEX report details that Australia’s emissions from the use of fossil fuels reached a peak in December 2008. This was followed by a period of decline in the figures, until December 2010, when emissions of fossil fuel carbon dioxide steadily reduced by almost nine megatonnes per annum, or nearly 4 per cent.

pitt&sherry’s Principal Consultant - Energy Strategies, Dr Hugh Saddler, author of the CEDEX report, said that the total emissions recorded for the 12 month period to September 2011 was almost two million tonnes higher than in the 12 month period ending March 2011.

“This is equivalent to an annual growth rate of about 1.4 per cent, or 5 million tonnes of CO2. Regrettably, current figures indicate that we are revisiting an upward trend whereby Australia’s emissions are again approaching the highest level we reached in December 2008,” Dr Saddler said.

“As indicated in previous CEDEX reports, consumption of petroleum products appears to be accelerating. At present, this is clearly the main driver of Australia’s growth in energy combustion emissions. Over the two decades since 1990, increases in energy combustion have caused more than 90 per cent of the increase in total emissions since 1990. Coal is the largest source of energy emissions, and accounts for most of the growth since 1990,” he added.

“The recent upward trend in total emissions is due to the interaction between emissions from electricity generation and emissions from use of petroleum fuels.”

“Apart from a short period during 2009, almost certainly reflecting the effects of the global financial crisis on economic activity, petroleum emissions have been growing steadily, and show no signs of slowing down.

Other key findings in the most current CEDEX include:

  • In the September quarter of 2011, Australia’s energy related emissions showed a continuation of the growth seen in the CEDEX for June 2011
  • The cause is accelerating growth in consumption of petroleum fuels, coupled with a slow decline in demand for both electricity and natural gas
  • Demand for electricity in the NEM continues to fall and is now at its lowest annualised level since mid-2007
  • Electricity supplied by gas and hydro generators fell, while supply from black coal, brown coal and wind stayed roughly constant
  • Annualised emissions from the consumption of petroleum fuels continue the increasing trend since August 2009, with especially rapid growth in demand for petrol and diesel.

“The increase in renewable generation is caused by two separate factors. Hydro generation from existing systems in Tasmania and the Snowy increased by about four terawatt hours (TWh) per annum over two years, following the end of the drought in 2009. Wind generation increased by about three TWh per annum over the same period, as new wind farms were commissioned in South Australia, Victoria, and New South Wales,” Dr Saddler said.

“Unfortunately, it is now clear that the ‘greening’ trend has come to an end. This is an entirely predictable consequence of the ‘bust’ in the wind generation industry, caused mainly by the depressed price of large generation certificates,” concluded Dr Saddler.